2013 NBA Playoffs Round 2 Wrap-Up

Western Conference

Memphis Grizzlies (5) over OKC Thunder (1) – The Russell Westbrook injury and the James Harden trade hang over this series, this playoffs, and this season for the Thunder.  Two years ago these two teams met in the same round of the playoffs, and the Thunder won it in 7 games.  Not to take anything away from the Grizzlies, who have been fantastic, but it’s tough to envision the series playing out the same way if the Thunder were the same team as last year and the one before that.  But, fortunately for Memphis fans like me, the Thunder let Harden go, and Westbrook’s injury severely crippled the OKC offense.  On the the other side of the ball, Tayshawn Prince did a serviceable job defending Kevin Durant one-on-one, and Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka were not able to handle Marc Gasol‘s size and versatility and Zach Randolph‘s post and board work.  Throw in a terrific series by Mike Conley and the reliably great defense of Tony Allen, and you’ve got a 5 game win by the Grizzlies.

San Antonio Spurs (2) over Golden State Warriors (6) – The Stephen Curry, Jarrett Jack, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Andrew Bogut line-up proved to be incredibly entertaining and a major curve ball for the opposition.  But Greg Popavich found a way to win, as he usually does.  Really it was all about sticking the D on the three point line and exploiting the Tony Parker – Tim Duncan pick and roll.  Great, feel-good story for the Warriors this post-season.  They definitely went further than anyone could have expected, especially after the injury to David Lee in round 1.  The Spurs earned the win with their superior adaptability.

San Antonio (2) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (5) – This will be an interesting match-up.  Two years ago, the Grizz knocked the Spurs out of the playoffs on the back of a tremendous performance by Zack Randolph and with the good fortune of Manu Ginobili suffering an injury.  I don’t know what to expect this year.  The trick to defending the Grizzlies is size up front, which the Spurs have, but if Tayshawn Prince keeps making open 17 foot jump shots, and Conley keeps playing so well, it’s going to be tough to stop them.  On the other side, stymieing the Parker – Duncan pick and roll without giving up open corner threes or secondary penetration is a real task, but Allen and Gasol are as good a tandem as any to make it happen.  Should be a great series.

Eastern Conference

Miami Heat (1) over Chicago Bulls (5) – I’m still sick to my stomach over how easy these playoffs have been for the Heat.  The Bulls minus Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng (nevermind the team’s best player Derrick Rose who didn’t play a game all season) is not a playoff team.  Factor in a lingering foot injury to defacto best player Joakim Noah, and this wasn’t even a series.  Dwyane Wade never really played up to his standards, and the Heat still had no problems despite LeBron James never having a really big (for him) game.  Chicago did everything they could.  They played hard all series despite only having 7 usable players on the roster, but the Heat were just too good.  When Chris Bosh decided to go have a great rebounding game, that was pretty much the nail in the coffin.  If he plays like that in the next series, look out Indi.

Indiana Pacers (3) over New York Knicks (2) – I really hope the story of this series doesn’t become a moratorium on Carmelo Anthony.  He played a good must win game 5 and terrific must win game 6.  The Knicks had two problems in the semi-finals.  Tyson Chandler lost his mojo.  I’m not sure if it was Roy Hibbert taking him out of his game, or if he’s hurt and nobody’s telling us what’s wrong, but his paint protection and generally very efficient low-usage offense were nowhere to be found.  AND Jason Kidd did not make a field goal in the entire series.  At all.  If Tyson and Kidd had played like this when they were Mavs, Dirk Nowitzki would still be an also-ran great player like Charles Barkley and Karl Malone.  Credit where credit is due, the Indiana Pacers stuck to their game plan of exploiting their size and relying on their defense, and it worked.  George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert are all among the best one-on-one defenders at their positions, and David West, while limited defensively is a good rebounder and is punishing against smaller defenders on offense.  Run a small-ball line-up against these guys at your peril.

Miami Heat (1) vs. Indiana Pacers (3) – The Pacers have all the right tools to compete with Miami.  Their wing defenders are top notch.  They have a big, aggressive point guard to take advantage at the one and two dangerous big men to make the Heat’s quick line-up pay for sacrificing size.  However, the Pacers have no bench at all (DJ Augustine is terrible as anything but as a catch-and-shoot spacer, Tyler Hansborough is a thug, etc.), and Miami is the team most able to impose its style of play because of the dominance of LeBron James and the lights out shooting they get from everywhere on the court thanks to Ray Allen, Shane Battier, Norris Cole, Mario Chalmers, and Chris Bosh.  Add in the defense, rebounding, and behind the defense lob-finishing that Chris Andersen (Birdman-Birdman!) brings to the table, and figure you’ll get at least a few bursts of Dwyane Wade brilliance, and you’ve got a champion.

2013 Playoffs – Stephen Curry Historical Stats

The internet is abuzz with how great Stephen Curry is playing in this post-season.  Zach Lowe’s mind is boggling.  Bill Simmons is beside himself with joy.  The words “best player of the playoffs” and “best player of the playoffs if not for Kevin Durant” have been uttered.  High praise.

So what exactly makes Curry’s current run for the Warriors so outstanding?  Two things really.  Most obvious is his prolific, high efficiency scoring.  He’s putting up 23 points on 19 shots with almost 9 three point field goal attempts per game, shooting 57 TS% on a 25.7 Usage%.  But just as important, Steph is punishing teams that trap him by passing to his teammates for buckets.  He’s dishing out over 8 assists a game with an Assist Rate over 30%, that’s a lot of playmaking for a primary scorer.

To see how many people have ever done what Curry is doing right now, I set the following parameters on our Basketball-Reference playoff statistics search: 10+ games played, True Shooting percentage of 57+, Usage% of 25+, and Assist Rate of 30+

		Per Game						Advanced
Player	Season	FGA	3PA	FTA	AST	TOV	PTS	AST%	USG%	TS%
LeBron James	2008-09	22.3	5.8	14.2	7.3	2.7	35.3	39.5	36.4	.618
Michael Jordan*	1990-91	22.1	1.5	8.7	8.4	2.5	31.1	36.7	32.7	.600
Michael Jordan*	1988-89	22.9	2.1	13.5	7.6	4.0	34.8	38.0	35.4	.602
Michael Jordan*	1989-90	26.6	3.1	9.9	6.8	3.5	36.7	34.5	36.1	.592
Baron Davis	2006-07	17.4	6.1	6.7	6.5	2.9	25.3	30.3	25.4	.622
LeBron James	2009-10	19.2	4.5	10.9	7.6	3.8	29.1	36.8	30.9	.607
Steve Nash	2004-05	17.9	3.6	4.1	11.3	4.7	23.9	43.9	26.6	.604
Kevin Johnson	1994-95	15.0	1.0	8.4	9.3	3.4	24.8	43.5	26.7	.663
Stephen Curry	2012-13	19.1	8.9	3.5	8.3	3.4	23.5	33.3	25.7	.571
Deron Williams	2009-10	14.9	5.1	11.1	10.2	3.0	24.3	41.0	25.6	.614
Gary Payton*	1997-98	18.3	5.0	5.0	7.0	2.6	24.0	30.4	25.6	.585

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/15/2013.

As with any list of great players doing great things, Michael Jordan and LeBron James headline it and comprise almost half of the applicable seasons including the top 4 by Win Share.  So it is.  After that the breakdown is BDiddy of the We Believe Golden State Warriors, Steve Nash of the pre-Sarver Fire Sale Phoenix Suns, Kevin Johnson of the Uh-Oh Charles Barkley’s Back Is Starting to Go Phoenis Suns, Deron Williams of the Boy I Hope We Don’t Run into Kobe and Pau Utah Jazz, and Gary Payton of the Noklahoma City Seattle Sonics.  And of course, Stephen Curry of the Hand Down Man Down Golden State Warriors who spawned this whole conversation.

Curry stands out somewhat in the way he’s producing.  He barely gets to the free throw line, but he still manages to score efficiently because of his high volume and accuracy from three point land.  Surprisingly, Steph has the lowest TS% on the list.  Everyone else is over 58% and most are over 60%.  But the way he’s scoring is so unique because it is all predicated on his deadeye shooting from range.  He drags the defense out and opens up passing lanes and opportunities just by having the ball in hand around the arc.  It’s fun to watch and very impressive because we’ve never really seen it done before – it’s like watching Reggie Miller play point guard (well), and everyone is still captivated by the process.

The good news for Warriors fans is that this is a damned exclusive list, and you’ve got two point guards (lead guards?) on it, and most of the players’ teams reached the conference finals.  The bad news for y’all Dubs is that the only season on the list to end in a championship is the 1991 Chicago Bulls campaign, a singularly odd playoffs in which Jordan broke the cardinal rule of doing too much to win by also being sickeningly efficient.  Miami seems to be way to good to lose to these Warriors, so it’s not likely Curry is going to have THAT kind of run, but I don’t think the NBA Finals are out of the question, and I don’t think I’ve ever in over 25 years of watching NBA basketball said “I don’t think the NBA Finals are out of the question” for the Golden State Warriors.  Not bad.

Do Star Players Really Win in the Playoffs? – PER & Win Share Review

“All models are wrong, but some are useful,” George E. P. Box.

Metrics and statistical evaluation tools are never exact.  Dean Oliver never claimed that using Offensive and Defensive rating would allow a MVP voter to instantly identify the precise best player in the league, much the opposite in fact.  Metrics are meant to serve as one indicator of efficiency and production that can be applied against the complexities of a game with 10 men on the court at any given time employing various strategies against a shifting landscape of circumstances.

That said, metrics are useful as quick and rough single number evaluators of who the pool of players operating at the highest level may be, and journalists and fans are learning to fall back on these numbers more readily than in the past.  So given that we know the metrics we rely on are not perfect, let’s take a quick look at who is left in these playoffs as an indicator of just how useful the derived numbers are.

Player Efficiency Rating

1.	LeBron James-MIA	31.6
2.	Kevin Durant-OKC	28.3
3.	Chris Paul-LAC	26.4
4.	Carmelo Anthony-NYK	24.8
5.	Brook Lopez-BRK	24.7
6.	Tim Duncan-SAS	24.4
7.	Dwyane Wade-MIA	24.0
8.	Russell Westbrook-OKC	23.9
9.	Tony Parker-SAS	23.0
10.	Kobe Bryant-LAL	23.0
11.	James Harden-HOU	22.9
12.	Blake Griffin-LAC	22.4
13.	Andray Blatche-BRK	21.9
14.	Anthony Davis-NOH	21.7
15.	Kyrie Irving-CLE	21.4
16.	Stephen Curry-GSW	21.3
17.	Al Jefferson-UTA	20.9
18.	John Wall-WAS	20.8
19.	LaMarcus Aldridge-POR	20.4
20.	Deron Williams-BRK	20.

The above table – courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com – shows the top 20 players by PER from the 2013 regular season.  7 of the top 10 (including Westbrook since he helped to win the first round series) are still in the playoffs.  Of the other three in the top 10 no longer in the playoffs, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez were in their respective first round series through game 7, and Kobe Bryant missed the entire first round due to injury – though given that Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are represented in the top 10, clearly either Kobe or Tim and Tony would not be playing in the second round if Mamba had played.

Players 11-13 also played until game 7 of their series.  14 and 15 were talented young players on weak teams that missed the playoffs.  16 is Stephen Curry, the presumptive MVP of the playoffs so far, and Deron Williams rounds out the top 20 as yet another game 7 participant.  Basically what we see here is that 15 of the top 20 players by PER advanced to the second round or pulled their round 1 series to 7 games, which I would suggest indicates that their teams were good enough to advance with a break or two in their favor.  If you excuse the Lakers’ crummy showing due to Kobe’s injury, it’s 16 of 20.  So either 75% or 80% of the top 20 players led teams good enough to win a playoff series.

Winning isn’t exactly what PER is trying to predict, but if we adhere to the old standard that winning in the NBA requires star players, we do see the players that PER considers to be stars well represented.

Win Shares Per 48 Minutes

1.	LeBron James-MIA	.322
2.	Kevin Durant-OKC	.291
3.	Chris Paul-LAC	.287
4.	Tyson Chandler-NYK	.207
5.	Tony Parker-SAS	.206
6.	James Harden-HOU	.206
7.	Marc Gasol-MEM	.197
8.	Tiago Splitter-SAS	.197
9.	Blake Griffin-LAC	.196
10.	Russell Westbrook-OKC	.195
11.	Dwyane Wade-MIA	.192
12.	Tim Duncan-SAS	.191
13.	Brook Lopez-BRK	.191
14.	Carmelo Anthony-NYK	.184
15.	Deron Williams-BRK	.184
16.	Serge Ibaka-OKC	.181
17.	Stephen Curry-GSW	.180
18.	David West-IND	.179
19.	George Hill-IND	.177
20.	Chris Bosh-MIA	.175

Unlike PER, Win Share really does aim to predict winning, and it actually does an even better job by the standards we established in the above study.  Every single player in the top 20 for Win Share per 48 minutes advanced to the second round of the playoffs or made it to game 7 (again including Russell Westbrook) of the first round.

I’m both impressed and surprised by these results.  I’m going to have to do a historical retrospective on this investigation and see if these two metrics pertaining to individual players have always been such accurate predictors of team playoff success.

For our purposes PER and WS/48 really do prove to be useful.  Go nerds!

LeBron James vs. Michael Jordan – A Statistical Comparison (Pace Adjusted)

In response to a quote from Pat Riley wherein he stated that LeBron James may be the best player ever, there’s been a healthy dialogue about whether or not James has a defensible argument as the G.O.A.T.

You know I need to get in on this!  Revisiting our pace adjusted comparison between Kobe’s best 4 years and Jordan’s 4 most comparable seasons, I’ve broken down the numbers on LeBron as a member of the Heat vs. Jordan at the same age.  The age range is 26-28.  The seasons are 2011-2013 for LeBron James and 1990-1992 for Michael Jordan.  The comparison is eerily apropos.

Both players were dealing with new team structures in the wake of playoff failure – Jordan with a ECF loss to the Pistons and the installation of Phil Jackson in the head coach position and the triangle offense changing his responsibilities – LeBron with a disappointing 2nd round loss to the Celtics and a change of teams to Miami.  Both players lost to the eventual champs in their first season under these new circumstances, Jordan to the Pistons in 7 games and LeBron to the Mavericks in 6 games.  Both players won their first championship the next season.  Both players’ teams won 65+ games the third season.  They both had great stats but missed out on MVPs in the first season and then won back to back season MVPs and in Jordan’s case back to back Finals MVPs (LeBron may very well accomplish the same).  Both players had to adjust to sharing the spotlight with superstar teammates.  Both players were statistically and by reputation and accomplishment head and shoulders above the competition of their day.  So… it’s a good range to compare.

I adjusted Michael’s stats to the 2011-13 Heat pace, so that the possessions available to both players would be level and would be in keeping with today’s game.  Obviously there are other factors at play in today’s game that make it different from what it was in the early 1990s, so arguments could be made that adjusting for pace is only one piece of the comparison.  That said, I don’t have a crystal ball to tell me how Jordan would function on a team loaded with three point shooters or how LeBron would play with no zone defense.  I don’t know if having a hand-check available would significantly help LeBron’s on-ball defense or hurt his driving game.  Nor do I know what a semi-zone would do to Jordan’s ability to ball-hawk on defense and high-post on offense.  Let’s stick with what we know and examine the numbers.

Pace Adjusted Per Game Stats

Jordan: 30.3 Pts, 5.7 Ast, 6.1 Rbd, 2.5 Stl, 0.9 Blk, 2.6 Tov TS% 59.7

James: 26.9 Pts, 6.9 Ast, 7.8 Rbd, 1.7 Stl, 0.8 Blk, 3.3 Tov TS% 61.3

It’s tough to evaluate which of those lines is better, isn’t it?  The pace adjustment did very little to lessen MJ’s dominance.  Where the Jordan vs. Kobe comparison was very close in terms of actual pace adjusted numbers, almost the same PPG, similar assists, similar TS%, Bron and MJ are strikingly different; yet they have almost exactly the same metrics, meaning they serve different team functions but have similar value.

Digging into the stats a little deeper, we see that LeBron is slightly more efficient in his scoring attempts.

Points per scoring possession:

Jordan: 1.19

James: 1.23

However, Jordan scores more points because he uses more of his team’s available possessions to try to score, and because he turns the ball over significantly less.  MJ and Bron have very similar assist to turnover ratios.  When we factor in attempts to create scores (FGA – 3PA + AST)  to get a “plays made” estimate.  Creating a plays made to turnover ratio, we show that Jordan is more efficient as an all-around points creator for his team.

Plays Made / Turnover:

Jordan: 11.4 to 1

James: 7.8 to 1

Looking at some of the factors we examined in the Jordan vs. Bryant comparison –

Total Offense (points + assists):

Jordan: 36

James: 33.8

Possessions Gained (steals + factored rebounds and blocks):

Jordan: +5.3

James: +4.9

Possessions Ended (turnovers + made shots + factored missed FGA & FTA):

Jordan: -24.7

James: -22.7

So overall Jordan ends more possessions for his team because he takes more shots, but he also gets it back a little bit more, and he creates slightly more offense.  It’s very close.  Jordan’s overall value by this standard is 0.6 points higher than James’s.  Which wouldn’t mean much since it’s my personal creation, but it’s actually mirrored by the smart people metrics.

Advanced Per Game Stats & Metrics:

Jordan: 30.2 PER, 0.293 WS/48, ORtg 123 DRtg 103, USG% 32.8

James: 29.8 PER, 0.287 WS/48, ORtg 120 DRtg 100, USG% 31.2

That is very tight!  As we saw in the pace adjusted per game figures, Jordan’s offense is higher rated, LeBron’s possession maintenance (in this case shown as DRtg) is higher rated.  Interestingly the league average Rtg for 1990-92 was 3 points higher than it was for 2011-13, meaning that if you were to make a league adjustment to Jordan’s O and D ratings by shifting him to this time frame, his numbers would exactly match LeBron’s.  The ORtg minus DRtg is 20 for each player.  The only difference is in Usage, where Jordan has a 1.6 advantage.  So using the simple estimated 100 possession Dean Oliver ORtg – DRtg + Usage calculation, Jordan creates a net +1.6 more points per hundred possessions than LeBron or about net +0.58 more points per game.  Half a point.

Overall the dynamic between the two is exactly what you’d expect.  James has the more varied all around game and is more turnover prone.  Jordan scores more and is slightly less efficient as a shooter.  The metrics are ridiculously close with MJ maintaining a small edge.

You could argue the intangibles all day, clutchness (if it exists), leadership, durability, etc.  In Jordan’s favor is the fact that he won the title in year three of this comparison, and LeBron hasn’t yet, and Mike went onto win in year 4 as well.  Also Michael’s teams never lost a series where they were favored (had home court advantage), and he never lost in an NBA Finals, even though twice the Bulls did not have home court.

But those sorts of arguments are circumstantial and easily shrugged off.  The truth is that we’ve been looking for the heir to Jordan’s throne for 20 years, and even if he still has some things to prove, and even if the specifics will always be debated, and even if Bill Russell or Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was really better than both of them, LeBron’s the first player since Michael retired who has a solid statistical argument to take the seat.  That makes this a NBA fan discussion worth having.

Miami Heat Will Not Sweep the Playoffs

Fo’ Fo’ Fo’ No Mo’

Love it. For one game at least David kicked Goliath’s butt. Or 5′ 8″ Nate Robinson outplayed 6′ 8″ LeBron James anyway. Sort of. Who cares? It was AWESOME!