2010-2011 Projections

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The 2010-2011 season is roughly 30 games in, and a mere three weeks away from being officially half way done.  There are some interested numbers projected for this season, partly because of a slightly higher than average number of overtime periods so far this year.  Comparing this season to the last 10 provides us with some trends-for-thought.

2010-2011 projects to have the most three point attempts of any of the past 10 seasons.  With a projected 538 three pointers attempted, this season could barely edge out 2007-2008 for most three pointers attempted over the past ten seasons.  2010-2011 would also be tied with the highest percentage of shots taken from 3 point range.  This year, and in 2008-2009 22.4% of shots have been three pointers.  Over the past 10 seasons, there has been a steady increase in this percentage from 17% in 2000-2001 to 22.4% this year.

Overall, total shots project to be down slightly from last year, despite more minutes overall.  The 6675 projected shots is well within the range for the past ten seasons.  2005-2006 had the fewest shots taken at 6477.  Last season saw the most at an even 6700.  Similarly, field goal percentage is down slightly from last year historical 46.1% to 45.5%.  Field goal percentages have steadily climbed over the past ten seasons from 44.3 in 2000-2001, and the low 43.9% in 2003-2004.

One category that seems to have no particular trend is free throw shooting.  Numbers have hovered between 74.5% shooting (2005-2006) and 77.1% shooting (2008-2009), but there is no clear progression.  Free throw attempts peaked in 2005-2006 at 2157.  However, they have fallen back to the low 2000’s for this season’s projected total, which is more in keeping with the average over the past 10 seasons.

For more comparison, check out the chart below.

click for full size image

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7 Responses to “2010-2011 Projections”

  1. High Above Courtside Says:

    So when do you project that Billy Hunter will have a discussion with Bron about him advocating contraction?

    • pmadavi Says:

      Bron is not bright, or media savvy. This is not the first time he’s said he’s in favor of something, and then come out and claimed he “never” said it. He needs to learn that “I don’t know,” is an appropriate answer most of the time.

      Paul Madavi

  2. jpalumbo Says:

    His excuse that he didn’t even know what contraction meant… embarrassingly stupid and obvious lie. He straight up said that the league would be better if Kevin Love and Brook Lopez could be moved to real basketball teams. LeBron just needs to become funny so that he can say candid stuff like Charles Barkley, and people will just laugh or at worst roll their eyes. Or he could shut his mouth.

    • pmadavi Says:

      Yeah, or if he’s going to lie, lie and say he has no opinion. He’s stupid. And I say this not because he made this mistake, but because he’s made it over and over.

      And you know what else, a lot of folks agree with him. Why not just stick with your guns and defend your opinion? He stinks off the court.

      Paul Madavi

  3. Ravenation, L.L.C. of North America Says:

    If he didn’t know what contraction means, he should not only be grateful to be a multi-millionairre, he should be lucky to be working at all.

    Meehan

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